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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Sacks @ 01:19:59Wrong
politics
Between late 2021 and the end of 2022, and especially following a Republican “red wave” in the November 2022 U.S. elections, there will be a pronounced internal split within the Democratic Party (and U.S. liberal politics more broadly) between pragmatic liberals and radical progressive activists.
I think there is going to be a schism. I think it started after the Union victory in Virginia, and I think it's going to accelerate throughout for the next year, and especially after the red wave in November 2022. There's going to be a schism between liberal pragmatists and these extreme radical progressives.View on YouTube
Explanation

Two central elements of Sacks’s prediction did not occur as stated:

  1. No Republican “red wave” in November 2022.
    Pre‑election expectations widely forecast a strong GOP midterm showing, but major outlets and post‑election analyses agree that the anticipated red wave “failed to materialize.” Republicans only narrowly captured the House while Democrats held (and then slightly expanded) their Senate majority, and the overall performance was described as far better than historical midterm norms for the party in power.(cnbc.com) Since Sacks’s timeline and causal story explicitly hinged on a red wave in 2022, that key premise was wrong.

  2. No clear, new “schism” between pragmatic liberals and radical progressives in 2021–2022, especially after the midterms.
    The Democratic Party has long contained moderate/centrist factions (e.g., New Democrat Coalition, Blue Dog Coalition) and a progressive wing, and those tensions were already evident early in Biden’s term, particularly around Build Back Better and related legislation.(en.wikipedia.org) But in 2021–22 Democrats nonetheless passed major bills like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act with unified Democratic votes in Congress, reflecting bargaining rather than a party break.(en.wikipedia.org)

    After the 2022 midterms, analyses emphasized that Democrats across the ideological spectrum performed better than expected; progressives gained some seats and influence, while centrists also notched key wins. Coverage framed this as an ongoing intra‑party debate over strategy and electability, not an accelerated rupture triggered by the election results.(onnradio.com) Articles noted that some moderates view progressives as hindering unity and vice versa, but the party remained a single “big tent” organization rather than splitting into two distinct liberal‑vs‑radical blocs.

Because the predicted triggering event (a Republican red wave) did not happen, and because Democratic intra‑party tensions did not qualitatively transform into the pronounced post‑2022 schism Sacks forecast, the overall prediction is best judged as wrong rather than merely ambiguous.