Sacks @ 00:50:25Wrong
politicsgovernment
In 2022, particularly in the November 2022 elections, governors in U.S. blue states who maintain strict COVID restrictions (especially school closures) will be voted out in a broad Republican “red wave,” with Gavin Newsom likely being the only such governor who survives in office.
I think Omicron if we have lockdowns under Omicron. And really the big issue is school closures. If we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that Chamath was talking about, and I bet we do. Whereas in red states, they're still out there learning normally... We're going to there's going to be we're going to be living in two different Americas... I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence from the November 2022 gubernatorial elections shows that Sacks’s prediction did not come true.
National outcome
- In the 2022 gubernatorial elections, Democrats gained governorships overall: they went from 22 to 24 governors, while Republicans went from 28 down to 26, a net Democratic gain of two rather than a Republican “red wave.” (en.wikipedia.org)
- Only one Democratic incumbent governor lost re-election: Steve Sisolak in Nevada. Republicans flipped just that single Democratic-held governorship, while Democrats flipped Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts from Republicans. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Post‑election analyses widely noted that the anticipated GOP “red wave” in the 2022 midterms largely failed to materialize. (states.xhirp.com)
Blue/swing-state Democratic governors with strict COVID policies Numerous Democratic governors from blue or swing states that had relatively strict COVID rules and significant school closures were re‑elected in 2022:
- Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) was re‑elected by about 54.5%–43.9%, a margin near 11 points. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Tim Walz (Minnesota) was re‑elected 52.3%–44.6%. (en.wikipedia.org)
- JB Pritzker (Illinois) won re‑election 54.9%–42.4%. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Kathy Hochul (New York) won a full term 53.1%–46.7%. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Gavin Newsom (California) himself was re‑elected with about 59.2% of the vote. (en.wikipedia.org)
These and other Democratic governors (e.g., in Maine, Connecticut, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Kansas) retained office, and Democrats added governorships in deep-blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts. (en.wikipedia.org)
Because:
- There was no broad Republican “red wave” in gubernatorial races,
- Most blue-state or COVID‑strict Democratic governors were not voted out in 2022, and
- Newsom was far from the only such Democrat left in office,
Sacks’s prediction is best categorized as wrong.