Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Omicron specifically will not be the variant that causes a major new step-change in COVID-19 severity or societal disruption beyond what has already been experienced with earlier variants.
There may be a variant that matters, but this is not itView on YouTube
Explanation

Available evidence supports the normalized prediction that Omicron did not produce a major new upward step-change in either COVID-19 severity or societal disruption beyond earlier waves. Clinically, multiple studies comparing Omicron to Delta found substantially lower risks of severe outcomes: large cohorts from Kaiser Permanente and other health systems show Omicron infections had markedly reduced hospitalisation, ICU admission, and mortality compared with Delta, with shorter hospital stays and lower need for ventilation, indicating attenuation of severity rather than a worse variant. (about.kaiserpermanente.org) Reviews of variant evolution likewise describe Omicron as the most transmissible lineage but generally causing less severe disease, especially due to its shift toward upper‑airway infection instead of the lung-dominant pattern seen with pre‑Omicron variants. (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) Societally, the initial Omicron wave in late 2021–early 2022 did drive record case counts and caused notable short-term disruptions such as widespread staff shortages and thousands of flight cancellations, but these disruptions occurred against the backdrop of an already ongoing, highly disruptive pandemic and were not clearly greater in scale than the lockdowns, border closures, and systemic shutdowns of 2020–early 2021. (axios.com) In many countries, major legal restrictions actually began to be relaxed as Omicron became dominant, even while cases hit record highs, and over the following years COVID-19 has moved toward a more endemic pattern with the WHO ending the formal global health emergency in 2023. (lemonde.fr) Omicron and its descendants did become the globally predominant lineage and were epidemiologically important, but they did not create a qualitatively worse phase of severity or societal upheaval beyond what earlier variants and the original strain had already produced, so the prediction as normalized is best judged as right.