Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Global supply chain disruptions and associated pricing distortions (e.g., elevated freight rates, input shortages) will largely normalize by the end of 2022, with their effects mostly worked through to end consumers by then.
a lot of folks estimate that this will take all the way through 2022 for that supply chain kind of glut and mismatch to work its way all the way through to the consumerView on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence suggests that some logistics elements of the supply chain (notably ocean freight) had largely normalized by late 2022, but broader global supply chain disruptions and their consumer‑level effects were not mostly worked through by then.

  • On the positive side for the prediction, container shipping spot rates had undergone a “big unwind” by the end of 2022: FreightWaves reported that by the last week of December 2022, spot container rates and the spread between Asia–East Coast and Asia–West Coast routes had fallen back close to pre‑COVID norms, indicating that port congestion and freight pricing distortions were largely normalizing. (freightwaves.com)
  • However, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)—a composite measure of global transport costs and manufacturing bottlenecks—shows that while pressures peaked at over 4 standard deviations above normal in late 2021, they were still about 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average in December 2022, i.e., notably elevated rather than “normal.” (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org)
  • More broadly, the episode is commonly characterized as the “2021–2023 global supply chain crisis,” with major sources describing material disruptions and knock‑on effects extending into 2023 (e.g., aircraft backlogs and various product shortages), which implies that the crisis was not considered resolved by the end of 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Critically, upstream component shortages—especially semiconductors—continued beyond 2022. The global chip shortage is dated 2020–2023, affecting over 169 industries, and J.P. Morgan Research in April 2023 still expected some chip shortages to persist through 2023 and into 2024, meaning key input constraints and their pricing effects were still feeding through to end products well after 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, ocean freight and port bottlenecks had largely eased by late 2022, but overall global supply chain pressures were still clearly above normal, and major input shortages and related pricing distortions were still impacting consumers into 2023. That contradicts the prediction that the "supply chain glut and mismatch" would have largely normalized and been "worked all the way through to the consumer" by the end of 2022.