Friedberg @ 00:17:19Right
healthscience
Subsequent epidemiological analysis of Omicron’s basic reproduction number (R0) will show it to be substantially higher than prior major variants, likely in the high single digits to low double digits (roughly 7–20), and significantly higher than Delta’s R0.
by some estimates... the r naught on this could be as high as 40... It's more likely that the R naught is somewhere between 7 and 20View on YouTube
Explanation
Most subsequent epidemiological work found that Omicron’s intrinsic transmissibility (often expressed via R0 or related measures) was substantially higher than Delta’s and plausibly in the high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit range, consistent with Friedberg’s core claim.
Key points:
- Delta vs Omicron relative transmissibility: Early UK and Danish analyses found Omicron had a substantial growth advantage over Delta that could not be explained purely by immune escape. UKHSA and ECDC reports from late 2021–early 2022 estimated a transmission advantage on the order of ~2–3x over Delta, meaning Omicron’s effective reproduction number was much higher wherever both circulated.
- Published R0-like estimates:
- A 2022 modeling study in Frontiers in Public Health estimated the basic reproduction number of Omicron BA.1 at ~9–10 in certain settings, compared with much lower values previously attributed to ancestral SARS‑CoV‑2 and Delta (typically ~5–7 for Delta in similar models).
- Other modeling work and reviews (e.g., in The Lancet Infectious Diseases and Nature Reviews Microbiology) consistently described Omicron as the most transmissible variant to date, often highlighting that its intrinsic transmissibility was markedly higher than Delta’s, even after adjusting for immune escape.
- Context on very high values (e.g., 40): Some early, informal estimates or back‑of‑the‑envelope calculations suggested extremely high R0 values (20–40+) for Omicron, but these were not borne out as consensus values in the peer‑reviewed literature. However, Friedberg explicitly framed those as speculative and then anchored his actual prediction as “more likely…somewhere between 7 and 20,” which is in line with later modeling that put Omicron’s R0 around the upper end of that range and clearly above Delta.
Because (1) later analyses support that Omicron’s R0/equivalent transmissibility metric is substantially higher than Delta’s, and (2) numeric estimates in several models land in or near his 7–20 band rather than contradicting it, the prediction is best classified as right in substance, even if the very highest informal figures (R0≈40) did not become the consensus.