The episode was released 4 December 2021, so Friedberg’s two‑week window runs to roughly 18 December 2021. His claim was that by then “we’ll know … whether this actually changes hospitalizations,” i.e., that the impact of Omicron on hospitalization rates would be clearly established.

What actually happened:

• Early South African hospital data (first half of December) – Reports from a major hospital complex in Tshwane (Gauteng) covering admissions 14–29 November showed many incidental COVID findings, relatively few patients needing oxygen, shorter stays, and a lower in‑hospital fatality rate than prior waves, but explicitly stressed these were initial findings and that “it will take another two weeks” before more precise conclusions about disease severity could be drawn.(covidactuaries.org)
• Discovery Health actuarial analysis (14 December 2021) – Discovery Health reported a roughly 29% lower risk of hospital admission in the Omicron‑driven wave compared with South Africa’s first wave, but framed these results as preliminary, derived from only the first three weeks of the Omicron wave, and confounded by high prior immunity and other factors.(discovery.co.za)
• South African Health Ministry briefing (mid‑December) – Health Minister Joe Phaahla cited early national data indicating that only about 1.7% of identified Omicron cases had been hospitalized in the early phase of the wave, versus about 19% at a comparable point in the Delta wave, suggesting much lower observed hospitalization rates—but again presented this as early evidence from a young, highly immune population, not yet a definitive global answer.(businessinsider.nl)

At the same time, major public‑health authorities were still saying the hospitalization impact was unclear:

• On 8 December, the WHO Director‑General stated that while there was some evidence Omicron might cause milder disease, “it’s still too early to be definitive” and warned against drawing firm conclusions until more complete data were available.(who.int)
• A UK SPI‑M‑O consensus statement dated 15 December 2021 explicitly concluded that “there currently remains no strong evidence that Omicron infections are either more or less severe than Delta infections” and noted that “the hospital impact of Omicron cases is yet to be seen.”(gov.uk)
• More formal comparative‑severity analyses, such as the South African NICD’s early assessment and subsequent UK studies, were published around 21 December and later—after Friedberg’s two‑week horizon—and still emphasized substantial uncertainty around exact hospitalization risk reductions, even though they increasingly pointed toward lower severity.(gov.uk)

So by mid‑December 2021 there was emerging hospitalization data from South Africa and some preliminary analyses suggesting reduced severity, but leading scientific and policy bodies were explicitly saying the effect on hospitalizations was not yet clearly established and more time was needed. In other words, the data within two weeks were suggestive, not decisively clarifying in the way Friedberg forecast.

Because his prediction was specifically about having clear knowledge within that two‑week window—and the expert consensus at that time was that severity and hospitalization impact were still uncertain—this forecast is best judged wrong on its stated timeline.