Twitter did implement the expanded private media policy in late November 2021, shortly before this episode, stating it would remove photos and videos of private individuals shared without their consent, but with clear exceptions for public figures and public events like protests. Media or protest footage could generally remain online if it was newsworthy or in the public interest, and enforcement was complaint‑based rather than a blanket prior restriction. (washingtonpost.com)

After Elon Musk’s acquisition in October 2022, the overall direction of X (formerly Twitter) moved toward less restrictive moderation, not more. Studies and reporting describe X as continuing to host large amounts of graphic, misleading, and inflammatory content around riots and protests, contributing to concerns about misinformation rather than a lack of such footage. (en.wikipedia.org) This is the opposite of the scenario Friedberg envisioned where Twitter would effectively “eliminate” democratized access to riot/crime video through strict enforcement.

TikTok has indeed become a major venue for real‑time videos of conflicts, protests, and violence. Research and reporting note TikTok’s outsized role as a primary source of news and real‑time updates for many users, especially around the Israel–Gaza war, and document billions of views on war‑ and Palestine‑related hashtags. (forbes.com) There is also extensive evidence of TikTok being used to share primary‑source war footage such as Ukraine‑war videos. (reddit.com) However, this growth cannot be tied specifically to Twitter’s 2021 private‑media policy, and TikTok has not “soaked up this whole market” in the sense of displacing X as a primary place to watch riot/crime/protest clips; both platforms continue to host and amplify such content.

Because (1) Twitter’s policy never actually banned most public‑event footage in the way Friedberg feared, (2) enforcement under Musk moved toward looser, not stricter, control over such videos, and (3) although TikTok became very important for conflict and protest footage, it did not become the singular or clearly dominant destination for such content as a direct consequence of Twitter’s policy, the causal and market‑share prediction he made has not materialized. Hence the prediction is best judged as wrong.