Sacks @ 00:45:47Inconclusive
economymarkets
From roughly 2022–2031, U.S. inflation will persist beyond what policymakers had called 'transitory', leading to rising interest rates and a decade in which public-market growth stocks, on average, perform worse than they did in the decade from ~2011–2020.
Now it looks like we're moving into an environment in which inflation is certainly not transitory. We don't know how long it's going to last for. And that creates an expectation of interest rates are going to rise. And so the next decade may not be as good for growth stocks.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s core elements were:
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Inflation would not be merely “transitory” and would lead to higher interest rates.
- U.S. CPI inflation surged to ~7–9% in 2021–2022 and stayed well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for multiple years, contradicting earlier official descriptions of inflation as “transitory.”
- In response, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from near 0% in early 2022 to above 5% by 2023, the sharpest tightening cycle in decades. This clearly validates the direction of Sacks’s near-term claim that inflation would not be transitory and that it would create expectations of rising interest rates.
- However, by 2024–2025, inflation had fallen substantially from its peak toward the low‑single‑digit range, and markets began to price in eventual rate cuts, suggesting inflation may not remain persistently high for the entire decade.
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“The next decade may not be as good for growth stocks.” (≈2022–2031 vs. 2011–2020)
- The 2011–2020 period was extraordinarily strong for U.S. growth/tech stocks: major growth indexes and the NASDAQ‑100 delivered very high annualized returns, substantially beating value stocks and broad market averages.
- From 2022 through late 2025, growth stocks experienced a sharp drawdown in 2022 amid rate hikes, but then a powerful recovery, with large‑cap tech and AI‑related names delivering strong gains in 2023–2025. Many leading growth indexes and mega‑cap tech stocks were again near or at all‑time highs by 2024–2025.
- However, the prediction is explicitly about the entire decade (~2022–2031) “may not be as good” as 2011–2020. As of November 30, 2025, less than half of that period has elapsed, and long‑horizon relative performance (over a full 10‑year span) cannot yet be measured. Growth’s strong rebound in 2023–2025 makes the ultimate decade‑long comparison especially uncertain.
Because:
- The duration and full‑decade impact of inflation/interest‑rate dynamics through 2031 are not yet observable; and
- The 10‑year performance of public‑market growth stocks from ~2022–2031 vs. 2011–2020 cannot be definitively evaluated in 2025,
it is too early to say whether the decade‑long prediction about growth stocks and the inflation regime is ultimately right or wrong.
Therefore, the correct status classification today is: inconclusive (too early to tell the full‑decade outcome).