The key elements of Sacks’s prediction all played out within a couple of years of late 2021:

1. Growth/tech stocks entered a clear bear market.

   • The Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market from November 2021 to December 2022, falling about 33% from its peak, its worst year since 2008. (nasdaq.com)
   • 2022 marked the first time the Nasdaq had four straight negative quarters since the dot‑com crash, with major tech names like Meta and Tesla losing roughly two‑thirds of their value and Amazon about half. (cnbc.com) This is exactly the “very different macro environment for growth stocks” he described.

2. Valuation multiples for growth/software companies materially compressed.

   • Public SaaS valuations peaked in 2021 around ~17x ARR, then fell roughly 35–40% by early 2022, with the median multiple dropping to ~10–11x. (saas-capital.com)
   • Broader software EV/Revenue multiples, which had surged to record levels in 2021, fell below 3x by late 2022 as rates rose and liquidity tightened, and by 2023–24 had “normalized well below their 2021 highs.” (aventis-advisors.com) This is consistent with “multiples and valuations are going to come down.”

3. Late‑stage private tech and VC portfolios saw major markdowns.

   • SoftBank’s Vision Fund, heavily concentrated in late‑stage tech, reported a record loss of about $27.4 billion for the year ended March 2022 due to plummeting valuations in its portfolio. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Large crossover and growth investors like Tiger Global marked down their private portfolios by roughly a third in 2022, after their tech‑heavy hedge and long‑only books lost more than half their value. (swissinfo.ch)
   • PitchBook/NVCA analysis highlighted that late‑stage venture growth was the most overextended in 2020–21 and that, as public markets turned against high‑growth, high‑loss names, late‑stage companies faced funding gaps, increasing down‑rounds and failures in 2023. (gamesbeat.com) These are precisely the “mark‑downs” and painful reset he anticipated.

4. Founders and newer investors experienced the “rude awakening.”

   • Commentary on the post‑2021 “funding winter” notes that the second half of 2022 brought “a rude awakening for many entrepreneurs and investors alike,” as venture funding and deal counts collapsed from 2021 highs and startups faced layoffs, lower valuations and difficult fundraising. (unlistedintel.com)
   • Other investors described 2022’s environment of lower valuations, shutdowns, panic and layoffs as a reckoning after “exceptionally bloated” years, with many portfolios “heavily overvalued” going into the downturn. (forbes.com) This matches Sacks’s warning that younger founders and investors who’d never seen a real down cycle were “about to get a rude awakening.”

5. Timing check.
   The bear market in growth tech, multiple compression and VC markdowns began in earnest in early–mid 2022—well within “the next few years” after his December 2021 statement—and the effects on founders and investors were evident by late 2022–23.

While parts of tech (especially AI‑linked mega‑caps) later rebounded, the specific prediction—that growth stocks would soon face a harsher macro regime, with multiples and valuations falling and an ensuing shock to inexperienced founders and investors—was borne out by events.