Chamath argued in November 2021 that the then‑elevated U.S. inflation would persist and mark the start of a longer‑lasting cycle, rather than being a brief, “transitory” spike.

What actually happened:

1. Inflation stayed high and even accelerated after late 2021.

   • CPI inflation in 2021 rose from ~1–2% early in the year to 6.2% in October and 6.8–7.0% by November–December 2021.
   • Annual CPI inflation was 4.7% in 2021 and then jumped to 8.0% in 2022, with a peak year‑over‑year rate of about 9.1% in June 2022 – the highest in over 40 years. (in2013dollars.com)

2. The episode lasted several years, not a short spike.

   • After the 2022 peak, inflation moderated but remained above pre‑COVID norms: about 4.1% for 2023 and roughly 3% for 2024, versus the Fed’s 2% target and the ~2% typical pre‑pandemic rates. (bls.gov)
   • By 2025, monthly year‑over‑year inflation readings are around 2.3–3.0%—down from the peak but still slightly above the Fed’s target for much of the period, confirming a multi‑year inflation episode rather than a quick reversion to ~2%. (in2013dollars.com)
   • Economic analyses now explicitly describe the 2021 surge as the start of “the most significant inflationary episode since the 1980s,” running from 2021 through its moderation by late 2024. (theglobalstatistics.com)

3. Policymakers themselves abandoned the “transitory” framing.

   • Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly retired the word transitory for inflation by late November 2021, and Fed communications later acknowledged that earlier expectations—that price increases would not be “particularly large or persistent”—had missed the mark. (washingtonpost.com)

Taken together, U.S. inflation did not behave like a brief, quickly‑fading blip. Instead, the late‑2021 surge inaugurated a multi‑year period of elevated inflation (2021–2023, with above‑normal levels persisting into 2024–2025), widely recognized as a major inflationary cycle. That matches Chamath’s core claim that the 2021 readings were the beginning of a persistent cycle rather than a short “transitory” spike.

Conclusion: The prediction that late‑2021 U.S. inflation would be persistent and mark the start of a longer‑lasting inflationary cycle is right in its main directional and qualitative sense.