As of 30 November 2025, Xi Jinping is still alive and remains the top political leader of China (General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and PRC President), widely described as the country’s paramount leader. (en.wikipedia.org) He secured an unprecedented third term as CCP General Secretary in 2022 and a third term as state president in 2023 after the abolition of presidential term limits in 2018, moves that position him to stay in power indefinitely. (en.wikipedia.org) Recent reports and official Chinese sources from 2025 still refer to him in these top roles, including as chair or host of major summits and events, indicating no leadership transition has occurred. (en.wikipedia.org)

Chamath’s prediction, however, is explicitly for the rest of Xi’s life and additionally specifies that there will be no peaceful transfer of power to another leader while he is alive. Because Xi is still in office and alive, that lifetime condition has not yet been resolved. The evidence so far is consistent with the prediction, but it cannot be definitively judged true or false until either Xi dies or there is a peaceful handover of power. Therefore the correct status today is inconclusive (too early to tell).