What was predicted

Friedberg said (paraphrased):

1. The U.S. would not experience hyperinflation.
2. If the Fed did not raise interest rates, then inflation the next year (2022) could be higher than the then‑current ~5.1%.

What happened

1. No hyperinflation in the U.S.
   Economists’ standard definition of hyperinflation (following Cagan) is monthly inflation above 50%, which corresponds to annual rates in the tens of thousands of percent.(en.wikipedia.org)
   In 2022, U.S. CPI inflation peaked at about 9.1% year‑over‑year in June, with average annual inflation around 8.0%, far below hyperinflation territory and with monthly changes on the order of 1% or less.(usinflationcalculator.com) So the “no hyperinflation” part is clearly correct.

2. Conditional statement about 2022 inflation and Fed rate hikes
   Friedberg’s second point was explicitly conditional: if the Fed did not raise rates, inflation could be higher than ~5.1% the next year. In reality, the Federal Reserve did raise interest rates starting in March 2022 and continued hiking throughout the year.(cnbc.com) Because the condition (“Fed doesn’t raise rates”) was not met, this is a counterfactual scenario and cannot be directly judged true or false. Notably, even with hikes, 2022 inflation averaged about 8%, which is above 5.1%, but that does not contradict what he said (he did not claim that raising rates would keep inflation below 5.1%, only that not raising could allow it to go higher).

Assessment

• The falsifiable portion of the prediction (“we’re not going to have hyperinflation”) was correct.
• The rest was an explicitly conditional warning about what could happen if the Fed failed to hike, and the condition did not occur, so it can’t be meaningfully scored as right or wrong.

Given that the clear, testable claim was accurate and the conditional part is non‑falsifiable in hindsight, the overall prediction is best classified as "right."