Jason @ 01:14:55Inconclusive
tech
Over the next 10–20 years there will be a competitive race among major tech companies to make consumer AR work at scale, and VR will primarily serve as an intermediate step rather than the dominant end-state platform.
So I think there's going to be a race for who can get AR to work. And VR is just like kind of a waypoint on the way there.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s timeframe is 10–20 years from the podcast date (Oct 30, 2021), i.e., roughly 2031–2041. As of today (Nov 30, 2025), we are only ~4 years into that window, so it is too early to definitively judge.
Directionally, some evidence aligns with Jason’s view:
- Major tech companies are indeed in a race around AR / mixed reality:
- Meta has invested tens of billions of dollars in AR/VR and explicitly frames its long‑term goal as AR glasses, with VR headsets (Quest line) as current products on the path to that vision.
- Apple launched Vision Pro (a mixed‑reality headset) in 2024 and is widely reported to be working on more lightweight AR glasses as a longer‑term target.
- Google, Microsoft, and others continue AR work (Google with AR services and experiments after discontinuing Glass; Microsoft with HoloLens for enterprise) and are positioning AR as a key future platform.
- VR currently functions as an intermediate / stepping‑stone platform in many public roadmaps, not clearly the dominant, final consumer computing platform. However, VR still has a substantial ecosystem (gaming, enterprise training, social) and could evolve.
Because we are nowhere near the 2031–2041 horizon and platform dominance can still change, the correct status is that the claim cannot yet be fully confirmed or falsified.