By the end of Joe Biden’s first two years in office (January 20, 2023), he had signed a long list of major laws, including:

• The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act (COVID and economic relief).
• The bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (roughly $1 trillion over ten years for roads, bridges, transit, broadband, etc.).
• The CHIPS and Science Act to subsidize and onshore semiconductor manufacturing and fund R&D.
• The Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate and clean‑energy investment in U.S. history, which also empowers Medicare to negotiate drug prices and extends ACA subsidies.
• The Honoring our PACT Act (veterans’ toxic exposure benefits).
• The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (first major federal gun‑safety law in nearly 30 years).
• The Respect for Marriage Act, codifying federal recognition of same‑sex and interracial marriage.
• The Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act and the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act, among other measures.

These were all enacted during the 117th Congress (2021–22). (en.wikipedia.org) Mainstream reporting and analysis across outlets describe Biden’s first two years as one of the most productive legislative periods in decades, with the Associated Press noting that this agenda produced “the most productive first‑term Congress since President Lyndon Johnson,” and multiple analyses calling his first two years “among the most productive of any president in the past half century.” (thenationalherald.com)

By contrast, assessments of Donald Trump’s first two years (January 20, 2017–January 20, 2019) consistently emphasize a much thinner legislative record. The signature domestic achievement was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, a large tax overhaul cutting corporate and individual rates. (en.wikipedia.org) Additional notable statutes in that window include the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 and the First Step Act (criminal‑justice reform) in December 2018. (en.wikipedia.org) However, key Trump priorities such as full repeal of the Affordable Care Act and a major infrastructure bill failed in Congress, and much of his domestic policy impact came via executive actions that were later reversible. (en.wikipedia.org)

Political scientists who tally “major laws” find that the 2021–22 Congress under Biden passed more such significant bills than the typical recent Congress, while journalists and scholars routinely rank Biden’s two‑year legislative output as exceeding that of other modern presidents, a group that includes Trump. (dominionpost.com) There is no serious empirical literature arguing that Trump’s first two years produced more or larger legislative and policy accomplishments than Biden’s first two years; the weight of evidence points the other way.

Because Biden’s first two years are widely regarded as more legislatively productive and substantively consequential than Trump’s first two years, Chamath’s prediction that Trump would have “gotten more done” in his first two years than Biden would in his was not borne out.