Product launch: Trump Media & Technology Group did in fact launch Truth Social as a functioning social app. It debuted on Apple’s App Store on February 21, 2022 and quickly hit the top of the free-app charts, with ongoing iOS, Android, and web clients now in active use. This contradicts the claim that they would "never get a product out the door." (cnbc.com)

User numbers in the first year: Trump Media does not publish official user stats, but a Reuters‑based timeline compiled by SEO.ai estimates that Truth Social’s monthly active users grew from about 0.5 million at launch in February 2022 to ~5.0 million in November 2022, ~5.5 million in December 2022, and ~6.0–6.5 million in January–February 2023. That puts first‑year usage clearly in the “on the order of 5–10 million” range. (seo.ai) These figures are consistent with later independent estimates that place Truth Social’s active user base in the mid‑single‑digit millions (roughly 5–6.3 million monthly active users) by 2024–2025. (en.wikipedia.org)

Overall assessment: The real world outcome is: (a) a real, publicly launched product exists (falsifying the “never launch” part), and (b) its scale has indeed been in roughly the 5–10 million‑user band rather than anything massive (matching only the conditional back‑up claim). Because the normalized prediction includes both "will never successfully launch" and the conditional user‑range statement, the combined prediction, taken literally, resolves to false even though the conditional piece was directionally accurate. Therefore the overall prediction is scored as wrong.