Friedberg @ 01:26:18Inconclusive
tech
In approximately 100–120 years from 2021 (i.e., by around 2121–2141), typical people will have an in-room “replicator” device capable of locally manufacturing essentially all desired physical items (including food and complex objects) almost instantaneously, with very low energy use and very low cost, fundamentally changing supply chains.
In 100 to 120 years from now, I do think we'll all have a replicator in our room, and that replicator will make all the things we want to make nearly instantaneously, with very low energy and very low cost.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction is explicitly about conditions 100–120 years after 2021, i.e., roughly 2121–2141. As of today (2025), we are only a few years past the prediction date, so the forecast’s target window has not begun yet.
Because the claim is about what “we’ll all have” in typical rooms a century+ from 2021, there is no way to evaluate its truth now. Whether or not current manufacturing, 3D printing, or synthetic biology is progressing toward such “replicator”‑like devices is irrelevant to scoring the prediction itself; the only question is whether that state of the world exists by 2121–2141, and those years are still in the future.
Therefore, the prediction’s accuracy cannot yet be determined and is scored as too early to tell.