Friedberg @ 01:26:05Inconclusive
techscience
Within roughly the next 30 years (by ~2051), advances in quantum computing will enable deterministic modeling of molecular and atomic interactions, allowing the design of new molecular systems and processes (e.g., for synthesis like improved ammonia production) via accurate quantum-level simulation.
using quantum computing. In the next 30 years, hopefully we'll be able to deterministically, um, model these, these behaviors on a, on a molecular and atomic level and as a result, kind of build new systems to make things.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s timeframe is ~30 years from 2021 (to about 2051), and we are only in 2025, so it is too early to judge.
As of 2025, the state of quantum computing and quantum simulation is:
- Hardware is still noisy and small‑scale. Current quantum computers are in the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) era: limited qubit counts, high error rates, and no large‑scale error correction yet. This significantly constrains accurate, large, deterministic simulations of complex molecules.
- Quantum chemistry simulations have been demonstrated, but only for small systems. Researchers have used quantum processors to simulate simple molecules (e.g., hydrogen, lithium hydride) and small model Hamiltonians, but not full-scale, high‑accuracy simulations of large, industrially relevant systems like complete catalytic processes for ammonia synthesis.
- Industrial process design is not yet based on fully deterministic quantum simulations. Chemical and materials R&D in practice still relies mainly on classical high-performance computing, density functional theory (DFT), and related classical approximations. Quantum computers are being explored experimentally for quantum chemistry and materials, but have not yet reached the accuracy and scale implied in the prediction (general, deterministic modeling of molecular and atomic behavior for designing new industrial processes).
Because the prediction explicitly allows up to around 2051 for this capability to emerge, and there is no requirement that it be achieved earlier, we cannot class it as right or wrong at this time. It remains a long‑term technology forecast whose outcome cannot yet be determined.