The prediction matches what actually happened in the 2022–2024 rising‑rate regime.

1. There was a clear, extended rising‑rate cycle.
   The Fed held rates at 0–0.25% through 2021, then began hiking in March 2022 and raised the federal funds target 11 times to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023. Cuts didn’t start until late 2024 and 2025, so policy was in a sustained “higher for longer” posture from 2022 onward. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Unprofitable / no‑cash‑flow growth stocks were hit extremely hard as rates rose.

   • A basket of “unprofitable technology” stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs suffered an over 60% drawdown once rates began normalizing and central banks tapered support.(denkercapital.com)
   • A detailed review of the 20 largest names in the Goldman Sachs Non‑Profitable Technology Index found that in 2022 19 of 20 had negative returns, every one of those 19 lagged the S&P 500, and 14 of the 20 lost more than 50% of their market value (the sole gainer, Pinduoduo, was still ~59% below its 2021 peak).(investidorfrugal.com)
   • A Wall Street Journal analysis noted that in early 2022, as investors priced in higher rates, the Russell 1000 Growth Index was down about 12% year‑to‑date versus only –3.6% for the Russell 1000 Value Index, and small‑cap indices heavily populated by unprofitable firms were hit especially hard.(livemint.com)
   • Another report highlighted that Goldman’s basket of unprofitable tech stocks “tumbled over 60% in 2022”, underscoring how speculative, no‑profit growth names bore the brunt of the rate‑shock.(moneycontrol.com)

   These are exactly the kind of “no cash flow growth stocks” Chamath was talking about, and they dramatically underperformed.

3. Dividend‑paying / yield‑oriented equities held up much better and often outperformed.

   • A Nasdaq study of high‑dividend equity ETFs found that in 2022 these funds were typically down only 3–6%, versus –16% for the S&P 500, making them “one of the few outperformers” during the aggressive rate‑hike year, as investors rotated to income and defensives.(nasdaq.com)
   • An analysis of factor ETFs in mid‑2022 reported that low‑volatility and high‑dividend strategies were the best‑performing equity factors year‑to‑date, with an Invesco high‑dividend/low‑vol ETF outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 26.6 percentage points.(etfstream.com)
   • WisdomTree later noted that its U.S. High Dividend Fund (DHS) produced a –3.5% YTD return versus –13.6% for the S&P 500 in early 2025, attributing the gap to its tilt toward stable, cash‑generating sectors and away from high‑momentum growth, in a still‑high‑rate, volatile environment.(wisdomtree.com)

4. What about later rebounds in speculative growth?
   There were sharp risk‑on rallies after the initial crash (e.g., Goldman’s unprofitable tech basket rebounding ~21% early in 2023 and later big percentage moves off depressed lows).(moneycontrol.com) But even after those bounces, these names remained far below their pre‑hike peaks and continued to show much larger drawdowns and volatility than dividend and income‑oriented ETFs, which experienced only mild declines or were roughly flat over the rate‑hike period.

Given:

• a well‑defined rising‑rate cycle beginning in 2022, and
• severe, sustained underperformance of non‑profitable/high‑duration growth stocks,
• alongside relative resilience and, in 2022, outright outperformance of dividend and high‑yield equity strategies,

Chamath’s directional claim that “no cash flow growth stocks” would fare poorly relative to dividend/yield equities in a rising‑rate environment is borne out by subsequent data.