Over the 2–3 years after October 2021, the US did experience a sustained period of higher inflation, tight labor markets, and elevated wages versus pre‑Covid, with no quick reversion to 2019‑style conditions, which matches the core of Chamath’s prediction.

Inflation and prices
• CPI inflation surged to about 7–8% in 2021–2022 and remained elevated in 2023 (~4%) before cooling toward ~3% in 2024–2025, above the ~2% norms of the 2010s. This implies a multi‑year inflation episode rather than a brief “transitory” bump. (bls.gov)
• Because inflation stayed positive throughout, the overall price level (consumer prices and many input costs) kept rising over those years, even as the rate of increase slowed later.

Labor shortages and tight labor markets
• Job openings far exceeded unemployed workers from May 2021 through at least December 2023, with the unemployed‑per‑opening ratio at or below 0.9 that entire time and as low as 0.5 at the peak—clear evidence of a sustained labor shortage relative to pre‑Covid norms. (bls.gov)
• A February 2024 analysis notes that in December 2023 there were still 2.76 million more job openings than unemployed people, confirming that shortages persisted years after Covid’s onset rather than snapping back to 2019 conditions. (usafacts.org)
• Business surveys into 2024–2025 report ongoing difficulty recruiting, with over a third to nearly half of firms saying they are short‑staffed or facing labor shortages at least weekly, indicating that tightness remained a material issue even as the market cooled from its 2022 extremes. (prnewswire.com)

Wage growth
• BLS data show average hourly earnings gains in 2020–2024 were nearly double the annual increases seen from 2015–2019 (about $1.46 vs. $0.75 per year), reflecting structurally higher nominal wage growth post‑Covid. (bls.gov)
• Real (inflation‑adjusted) average hourly earnings began rising again in 2023–2024, with year‑over‑year real earnings growth of roughly 1–1.5% in late 2023 and 2024, consistent with employers “having to pay people more” in a tight labor market. (bls.gov)

Energy prices
• Average US gasoline prices jumped from about $2.17 in 2020 and $2.60 in 2019 to $3.01 in 2021, then nearly $4.00 in 2022, and have since settled into the mid‑$3 range (roughly $3.30–3.50 in 2023–2025). That’s a clear step‑up relative to pre‑pandemic norms, even though prices peaked in 2022 and then eased somewhat. (news.usgasprice.com)

Why this is counted as ‘right’ despite some cooling later
By late 2023–2024, both inflation and labor tightness had moderated from their 2022 peaks, and some measures (like job openings and quits) moved closer to normal. But Chamath’s key claim wasn’t that conditions would worsen monotonically every single year; it was that we were entering a multi‑year regime of high inflation, rising wages, and tight labor, rather than quickly reverting to pre‑Covid conditions. Looking at 2022–2023 in particular, that is exactly what happened: inflation stayed high for years, wage growth ran hotter than in the 2010s, labor markets remained unusually tight, and energy/overall price levels moved to a higher plateau. On net, the prediction’s main thrust was borne out, so it is best judged as right.