Data since late 2021 show that the U.S. did enter a multi‑year period of elevated inflation, and research finds that supply‑side factors—including labor shortages and higher input/commodity costs—were key drivers, not just a brief post‑Covid blip.

1. Multi‑year elevated inflation, not a short blip

   • Year‑over‑year CPI inflation rose sharply in 2021 and stayed well above the Fed’s 2% target and pre‑pandemic norms for several years: about 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, 4.1% in 2023, and roughly 3.0% in 2024. (bls.gov)
   • Monthly CPI data show inflation surging from mid‑2021 and remaining elevated through 2022–23, only gradually easing but still running around 3% into 2024–2025—above the Fed’s 2% goal. (officialdata.org)
   • The period is widely characterized in the literature as the “2021–2023 inflation surge,” recognizing it as a sustained, multi‑year event rather than a brief spike. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Forecasts and surveys in 2025 still expect inflation to remain modestly above target for some time, underscoring that the period of elevated inflation has lasted multiple years. (bankrate.com)

   This matches Chamath’s core claim that starting in late 2021, the U.S. would experience a sustained period of higher inflation, not just a couple of quarters of transitory price increases.

2. Role of labor shortages and raw material / input costs

   • A Congressional Research Service analysis notes that broad‑based price increases were tied to a supply‑demand imbalance, highlighted by a tight labor market and labor shortages—with employers struggling to fill openings because labor supply remained low by historical standards even as demand surged. (congress.gov)
   • The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in late 2021 pointed to supply bottlenecks and labor shortages raising material input costs and being passed through into consumer prices, and explicitly framed these as complicating and prolonging the inflation problem. (chicagofed.org)
   • Work summarized by the World Economic Forum found that supply constraints (bottlenecks) significantly magnified U.S. inflation, estimating that U.S. inflation would have been about 6% instead of ~9% at the end of 2021 without these supply bottlenecks—showing a large supply‑side contribution beyond pure demand. (weforum.org)
   • The 2021–2023 period saw a global supply chain crisis and a global energy/commodities crisis that raised raw material and energy costs (oil, gas, electricity) and constrained production, contributing to worldwide—and U.S.—inflation. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Analyses of the inflation surge also emphasize that input cost increases and supply chain disruptions were unusually large contributors to U.S. inflation compared with the pre‑2019 period, consistent with Chamath’s focus on persistent cost and supply issues rather than only excess demand. (fr.wikipedia.org)

Overall, from late 2021 onward the U.S. did experience several years of above‑normal inflation, and persistent supply‑side issues—tight labor markets, labor shortages, and higher energy/raw‑material and input costs—were major, well‑documented contributors. That aligns well with Chamath’s prediction that inflation would be "here to stay" for multiple years and driven by those factors rather than being a short, purely transitory post‑Covid blip.