Chamath @ 01:01:14Inconclusive
markets
Netflix, which had roughly 200 million subscribers at the time of this discussion (October 2021), will grow to approximately 1 billion subscribers within the next 7–8 years (by around 2028–2029), continuing to get larger as the world’s largest media company.
they're already the largest media company in the world, and they're only going to get bigger. You know, Netflix has, what, 200 million subscribers? They're going to get to a billion subscribers. It's just inevitable. And so for them, I do think it's a very rational business position to take, which is that I have to appeal to a billion people over the next, you know, 7 or 8 years.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to judge this prediction.
Chamath’s timeframe was “over the next, you know, 7 or 8 years” from October 2021, i.e., roughly 2028–2029. That window has not yet arrived.
Current data shows Netflix is far below 1 billion subscribers:
- Netflix reported about 269–270 million global paid memberships in early/mid‑2025, up from ~214 million at the end of 2021.
Because the prediction is explicitly about reaching ~1 billion subscribers by around 2028–2029, and we are still in 2025, we can’t yet say whether it will ultimately be right or wrong, even though progress so far suggests it would require extremely rapid further growth to hit 1 billion by that time.
Therefore the correct status is: inconclusive (too early to tell).