As of November 30, 2025, there has been no full-scale Chinese military invasion of Taiwan. The situation instead features sustained Chinese military pressure, including frequent PLA air and naval activity, large-scale exercises such as Joint Sword-2024 and 2025’s Channel/Strait Thunder drills, and encirclement-style maneuvers, but none of these have crossed the threshold into an outright invasion or attempt at forcible occupation of Taiwan. (csis.org)

Similarly, there has been no U.S. combat deployment to fight in defense of Taiwan. The U.S. has deepened security ties, authorized arms sales, sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait, and reportedly placed a small number of permanent military trainers or special forces in Taiwan, but this is qualitatively different from deploying large-scale U.S. troops for wartime defense of the island’s semiconductor facilities. (armyrecognition.com)

However, Chamath’s prediction was framed in open-ended terms—“they will invade Taiwan … we will have no choice except to deploy troops into Taiwan”—without specifying any time horizon (e.g., by a specific year). Since such events could still occur in the future and there is no defined deadline by which to judge success or failure, the claim cannot yet be labeled definitively right or wrong.

Because:

• The core predicted events (PRC invasion + U.S. defensive troop deployment) have not happened by late 2025; but
• The prediction did not include a time limit and concerns an eventual future contingency;

the appropriate assessment today is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than “wrong.”