This sign Taiwan's death warrant. I'm sorry, but you should just assume we should... No, my point is the following. Taiwan will. When the when PRC has the right window, be under complete Chinese control. And we, because of how we have executed this and how we've executed the rest of our Middle Asia strategy means that we will not really engage.View on YouTube
As of November 30, 2025, Taiwan remains self-governed under the Republic of China (ROC) with its own democratic institutions, military, and de facto autonomy. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) claims Taiwan but has not brought it under full PRC/CCP control, nor executed a successful invasion or forced unification.
Key observable facts:
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No PRC takeover of Taiwan yet
- Taiwan continues to hold its own elections, operate its own government, and field an independent military.
- There has been no formal PRC annexation, forced unification, or regime change in Taipei.
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No US–PRC war over Taiwan to date
- While US–China tensions over Taiwan have significantly increased (military exercises, arms sales, high-level visits, and repeated PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan), there has been no full-scale PRC attack on Taiwan that would test whether the US would “really engage” militarily in the way described in the prediction.
Chamath’s prediction has two linked components:
- PRC eventually brings Taiwan under complete Chinese (PRC/CCP) control.
- When that happens, the US ultimately chooses not to intervene militarily in a meaningful way.
Because the first event (full PRC control over Taiwan) has not occurred at all yet, the second (US non-intervention) has not been tested. The prediction is about an open‑ended future scenario without a specified deadline, so it cannot yet be judged as right or wrong—only that it has not (yet) come to pass.
Therefore, the correct classification as of now is inconclusive (too early).