Chamath’s claim has two parts. For SpaceX’s Starlink, it is clearly correct: by 2025 Starlink has launched over 7,600 satellites (about 65% of all active satellites), is available in more than 140 countries, and has grown from 1 million subscribers in 2022 to about 8 million by November 2025, with multi‑billion‑dollar annual revenues and a central role in SpaceX’s valuation—i.e., it is a commercially significant, widely deployed service.(en.wikipedia.org) For Tesla’s humanoid robot (Optimus/Tesla Bot), however, the situation is different: as of late 2025, Optimus units are doing limited tasks inside Tesla facilities and public demos, and Musk repeatedly talks about thousands of internal robots in 2025 and large‑scale production/sales starting in 2026, but major business and finance outlets note that Optimus robots are still not yet on the market or sold commercially, with scale production targeted for 2026 and beyond.(cnbc.com) So today the Starlink half of the prediction has clearly come true, while the Tesla Bot half has not yet matured into a real external product line (though it might in the future). Because one component is fulfilled and the other is still pending rather than clearly failed, the overall, combined prediction is best rated as inconclusive at this time.