By late 2025, parts of the prediction are directionally supported, but the key elements have not yet occurred, and the relevant time horizon (Mars/space use, large internal fleets) clearly extends beyond today.

What has happened so far

• Tesla has indeed developed its humanoid robot, Optimus, to a working prototype stage and begun limited deployment inside its own facilities. Reports indicate over 100 Optimus units operating in Tesla factories on repetitive tasks, plus additional units in offices and for demo/service roles (e.g., Tesla Diner, public events).(opentools.ai)
• Optimus is still not a mature, fully autonomous product: investigative reporting describes it as heavily reliant on human training data, with lab setups where workers demonstrate motions; the robot still stumbles and often needs support rigs.(businessinsider.com)
• Tesla has no external commercial customers yet. Musk and Tesla repeatedly say Optimus will be used internally first, with sales to other companies planned only after Tesla has deployed and refined robots in its own factories (targeting 2026 and beyond).(xatakaon.com)

These facts are consistent with the spirit of the podcast claim that Elon/Tesla would be the robot’s first major customer, but they are still early, small‑scale pilots rather than "the first 1,000" or "thousands" of units.

What has not happened yet

• The "on the order of thousands" deployment is still a goal, not reality. Musk and analysts repeatedly project 1,000–2,000+ Optimus units in Tesla factories by the end of 2025 and tens of thousands per year in 2026+, but these numbers are planning targets; public reporting through late 2025 still describes only limited internal use and low-volume production, with full-scale production pushed back toward 2026.(investor.wedbush.com)
• There is no evidence that Optimus is working in Boring Company tunnels. The Boring Company’s automation push is focused on increasingly autonomous tunnel-boring machines and “Zero-People-in-Tunnel” continuous mining, not humanoid robots hauling rocks.(urca.foundation)
• Optimus has not yet flown to space or been used for space-station or Mars construction. Musk has announced plans for Starship missions to Mars in 2026 that would carry Optimus robots, but these are future missions that have not yet occurred.(investing.com)

Why the verdict is “inconclusive”

• The core structural claim—Elon Musk, via his companies, will be the initial major customer for Tesla’s humanoid robot—is supported so far: as of 2025, all known Optimus deployments are internal to Tesla, and external customers are planned only later.
• However, the specifics Jason gave (first ~1,000 robots used across Tesla factories, Boring Company tunnels, and Mars/space-station construction) depend on events that are explicitly planned for the late 2020s and beyond, especially Mars work. Those milestones have neither been achieved nor clearly falsified by 2025.

Because the prediction’s key conditions (thousands of units across Musk companies, robots used in Boring tunnels and in space/Mars construction) lie in a timeframe that has not yet arrived, we cannot judge it as clearly right or wrong as of November 30, 2025. Hence the status is "inconclusive (too early)".