The prediction is framed on a 10‑year horizon starting around mid‑2021 (i.e., through ~2031). As of the current date in late 2025, only about four years of that window have elapsed, so it’s too early to make a definitive call.

Current evidence:

Amazon’s position in commerce

• Amazon still has a dominant share of U.S. e‑commerce: roughly 37.6% of U.S. online retail in 2024, nearly 6× the next‑largest retailer (Walmart at 6.4%, Apple at 3.6%). (demandsage.com)
• Shopify has grown into a strong #2, with about 12% of all U.S. retail e‑commerce GMV in 2024 and ~30% share of U.S. e‑commerce platforms by website usage, but that still leaves Amazon with a much larger slice of actual spending. (salesso.com)
• There is no evidence yet that Amazon is “losing to” Shopify, Square/Block, or Stripe in a way that materially erodes its overall dominance in retail e‑commerce.

Apple’s position in payments/financial services

• Apple Pay remains the leading mobile wallet in the U.S., with estimates of ~92% share of U.S. mobile wallet transactions and around 14% of global online consumer payments as of 2024–2025. (capitaloneshopping.com)
• Apple Pay is estimated to process on the order of $10 trillion annually in 2025. (clearlypayments.com)
• Stripe is large and growing fast—processing $1.4 trillion in payments in 2024 and valued around $91.5B in 2025—but that is still a fraction of card volumes and of Apple Pay’s estimated throughput, and Stripe’s online‑payments share (~8% vs Apple Pay’s ~14% in 2025) does not yet show Apple clearly “losing” to Stripe. (capitaloneshopping.com)

Shopify, Block (Square), Stripe as challengers

• Shopify, Block, and Stripe have all grown into major players (e.g., Shopify’s 12% GMV share in U.S. retail e‑commerce; Stripe’s $1.4T payment volume in 2024; Square’s quarterly GPV in the ~$60–70B range and continuing growth). (salesso.com)
• However, the data so far show coexistence and growth of challengers alongside continued dominance by Amazon and Apple, rather than a clear, already‑realized loss of dominance by Amazon/Apple in commerce or payments.

Why the result is ‘inconclusive’:

• The core claim is about what will happen “over the next decade”—i.e., by around 2031. We are only partway through that period.
• Interim data show that Shopify, Stripe, and Block are indeed formidable and growing, but they have not yet “caused Amazon and Apple to lose” or materially eroded Amazon’s or Apple’s dominance in their respective arenas as of 2024–2025.
• It remains plausible that relative shares could shift much more between now and 2031, so the prediction cannot be definitively scored as right or wrong yet.

Given the incomplete time horizon and mixed but not decisively contrary evidence, the correct status for this prediction as of 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.