They estimate the wealth tax would generate over 22 billion. We've already seen Elon and it won't. That's a static analysis. That's such a stupid analysis because it's completely... You're not going to raise 22 billion from this. You're going to raise it's actually going to lead to a decrease in tax revenue, because so many of these people are going to leave the state and they're going to take investment with them, their businesses with them, their job creation with them.View on YouTube
The prediction was conditional on California enacting the proposed state‑level wealth tax (the “California Tax on Extreme Wealth” structured as 1% on wealth over $50M and 1.5% over $1B under ACA 8/AB 310, later AB 2289 and AB 259). The underlying academic analysis indeed projected roughly $22.3B per year in revenue if such a tax were in force. (cffp.recherche.usherbrooke.ca) However, AB 310 (2021–22) failed in committee and died on February 1, 2022, and its successor AB 2289 likewise never advanced to enactment. (legiscan.com) The most recent version, AB 259 with accompanying constitutional amendment ACA 3, was held in the Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee in January 2024 and did not pass; Governor Newsom publicly opposed wealth‑tax proposals. (a24.asmdc.org) Current overviews as of mid‑2025 confirm that no California wealth tax is in effect; all such proposals have stalled or died in committee. (halberthargrove.com) Because the triggering policy (this specific wealth tax) has never been implemented, there is no empirical basis to judge whether it would have raised the projected revenue or reduced overall tax revenue, so the prediction has not been testable in the real world yet.