Jason @ 00:38:04Inconclusive
techaimarkets
Over the next few years (through at least 2027), Google’s core search advertising business will continue to grow overall, supported by increased search volume and improved AI-driven ad targeting, and Google will not lose its dominant search position to ChatGPT/OpenAI. Over the same time frame, OpenAI’s relative share and leadership in the general-purpose AI assistant/model market will decline as Google (Gemini), xAI (Grok), and Anthropic gain share and surpass OpenAI on key benchmarks and usage.
I'm going to take the other side of it. I think what's going to happen is the AI gains in advertising targeting and the number of searches is going to go up. So while the revenue per search might go down, the number of searches goes up and then the targeting goes up. So I'm going to take the other side of it. I think the search franchise is going to grow and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT. And I think the big loser in all of this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with 100% of the market, and they're only going down and they're facing a Google firing on all cylinders, anthropic and grok, beating them in the leaderboards pretty consistently.View on YouTube
Explanation
It’s too early to evaluate this prediction.
The forecast explicitly concerns what will happen “over the next few years… through at least 2027” to:
- Google’s core search advertising (overall growth, maintained dominance vs. ChatGPT/OpenAI), and
- OpenAI’s relative position in the general-purpose AI assistant/model market (whether it loses leadership and share to Google, xAI, and Anthropic by 2027).
As of today (November 30, 2025), only about one week has passed since the podcast release date (November 22, 2025), and we have not yet reached the end of the stated evaluation window (sometime in 2027). Because the claim is about a multi‑year trajectory and end-state, it cannot be definitively judged now, regardless of any short-term signals.
Therefore the outcome is inconclusive (too early to tell).