Chamath’s prediction on Oct 17, 2025 was that local political and community opposition that blocks or forces withdrawal of large AI/data-center projects would continue and evolve into a broader trend “in the coming years,” rather than remain isolated incidents.

What has happened so far (before and after the prediction):

• Before the podcast (trend already emerging):

  • An NPR/10a Labs analysis found that 16 data‑center projects nationwide were delayed or rejected between May of the previous year and March 2025 due to community resistance, framing it as mounting nationwide opposition to AI/data centers, not just one‑off cases. (wboi.org)
  • Google withdrew a 468‑acre data center project in Indianapolis after intense local pushback—hundreds of residents packed hearings and celebrated when Google pulled its rezoning request. (axios.com)
  • In Tucson, the City Council unanimously rejected the massive Amazon‑linked Project Blue data center after weeks of protests and organizing by groups like No Desert Data Center, explicitly citing water, energy, and transparency concerns. (azluminaria.org)

• After the podcast (Oct 17–Nov 30, 2025):

  • Microsoft canceled a 244‑acre data center (Project Nova) in Caledonia, Wisconsin following pushback from residents and local officials, stating it would seek a site better aligned with community needs. (tomshardware.com)
  • A proposed $17 billion “Project Sail” data center in Coweta County, Georgia has triggered large‑scale opposition, with a 3,600‑member citizen group (“Stop Project Sail”), public meetings, and widespread concern over water use, noise, and construction impacts. (ft.com)
  • In Springdale Borough, Pennsylvania, residents and environmental groups are opposing a 565,000‑square‑foot AI data center at the site of the former Cheswick Generating Station, citing pollution, noise, and high electricity and water use; the borough council’s final decision is still pending. (axios.com)

These examples—spanning the Midwest, Southwest, Southeast, and Northeast—show that new cases of community backlash and even project cancellations have indeed occurred since the prediction, and they fit the pattern Chamath described.

Why the verdict is still “inconclusive (too early)” rather than “right”:

• The prediction explicitly concerns a multi‑year trajectory (“the beginning of a trend” that will continue “in the coming years”). As of today (Nov 30, 2025), only about six weeks have passed since the podcast.
• While post‑prediction events in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are consistent with his claim and reinforce that this is more than a few isolated incidents, we cannot yet know whether this level of opposition will persist or intensify over “the coming years.”

So: early evidence strongly aligns with Chamath’s thesis that local opposition to AI/data centers is spreading and affecting projects across multiple states, but because his forecast was explicitly about a long‑term trend over years, not just the next few months, there hasn’t been enough time to say definitively that the prediction has come true. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.