The thing that I keep in mind whenever I try these apps for the first time is today is the worst it'll ever be. It only gets better from here. And so if you look at the starting point, it won't take but a year where this thing I think, or maybe two years where this thing is legitimately excellent.View on YouTube
The prediction’s horizon is 1–2 years from the early‑October 2025 discussion, i.e. roughly between October 2026 and October 2027 for consumer video‑generation apps like a Sora‑based “Slop” app to become “legitimately excellent” for mainstream users.
Today is November 30, 2025, less than two months after the prediction was made, so only ~10–23% of the forecast window has elapsed. We are still well before the earliest point at which Chamath expected the prediction to be realized, so it is not yet possible to determine whether mainstream‑quality, widely usable consumer video‑generation apps will meet his standard within that 1–2 year timeframe.
Because the forecast period has not yet ended, the correctness of the prediction cannot be evaluated at this time.