The prediction gives OpenAI roughly four years from August 2025—i.e., until around August 2029—to reach ~2 billion daily active users, about one‑tenth of Facebook/Meta’s then‑current revenue, and a valuation on the order of $1.5 trillion. As of the current date (November 30, 2025), that deadline is still almost four years away, so it is too early to know if this target will be met.

Available data only show partial progress so far: estimates and CEO statements put ChatGPT at around 800 million weekly active users in 2025, with daily actives on the order of 120–180 million—well below 2 billion DAU.【1search0】【1search2】【1search3】 OpenAI is valued in the low hundreds of billions as of 2025 (roughly $300–500 billion, depending on the private-markets quote), not yet near $1.5 trillion.【1search0】【1search2】【1search1】 Internal forecasts cited in the press project $125 billion in annual revenue by 2029 and billions of users by 2030, but those are plans rather than outcomes.【1search5】【1search7】 For comparison, Meta’s 2024 revenue is about $164.5 billion, implying that one‑tenth of Facebook/Meta revenue is on the order of $16–19 billion per year.【2search3】

Because the forecast horizon (through ~August 2029) has not yet passed, we cannot definitively say whether Chamath’s prediction is right or wrong at this time; it remains unresolved.