As of November 30, 2025, neither the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries nor the 2028 general election have taken place, so we cannot test the core of Chamath’s prediction (whether a self‑identified socialist could or does win the Democratic primary, and whether such a candidate then loses the general under the Electoral College).

Key points:

• The 2028 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, and the primary calendar and candidate field for that cycle are not yet fully determined or completed as of late 2025. The Democratic nominee has not been selected, and the general election result is unknown.
• There have been no completed 2028 presidential contests that would empirically confirm or falsify the claim that “a socialist can absolutely win” the Democratic primary but “cannot win” the general election under current Electoral College conditions.
• While there have been ongoing debates about reforming or abolishing the Electoral College, no constitutional amendment or nationwide compact has taken effect to replace it as of 2025; the Electoral College system remains in place for upcoming presidential elections, including 2028. This preserves the structural premise of the prediction, but doesn’t yet show whether a socialist nominee would in fact lose in the 2028 general election.

Because the necessary events (the 2028 primaries and general election) have not occurred, the prediction cannot yet be judged as right or wrong. Therefore the correct status is "inconclusive" (too early).