I don't think this was the beginning of a bust cycle or something like that. I still think that we're in a boom. I still think we're in an investment supercycleView on YouTube
As of November 30, 2025, the prediction covers a multi‑year horizon (“over the next several years,” normalized here as through at least 2028), so it is too early to determine whether the AI boom will persist without a sustained bust.
Evidence so far (late 2025) is broadly consistent with Sacks’s current view that we are in an AI investment boom/supercycle:
- Major analysts and banks still describe AI as driving a structural "supercycle" in markets and earnings, not a completed bubble and crash. (reuters.com)
- The Wikipedia “AI bubble” overview notes enormous and growing AI spending—US mega‑cap AI investment expected to exceed $1.1 trillion between 2026 and 2029 and total AI spending to surpass $1.6 trillion—alongside record valuations like Nvidia briefly reaching a $4 trillion market cap in 2025. This describes an ongoing boom, not a post‑bubble bust. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Forecasts from Dell’Oro and others project global data‑center capex—now heavily driven by AI accelerators—to grow at ~21% CAGR to around $1.2 trillion by 2029, with hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta) responsible for roughly half of that spending. They explicitly expect strong AI‑related investment through the second half of the decade, even if there may be a short‑term slowdown around 2026. (datacenterdynamics.com)
- Recent reporting shows big tech continuing to raise AI and data‑center capex guidance for 2025–2026—individual firms planning tens to over a hundred billion dollars each, with aggregate AI infrastructure spending well into the hundreds of billions and characterized as an ongoing “AI capex frenzy.” (investorplace.com)
- Coverage in outlets like the Washington Post frames AI data‑center and software spending as a key force “propping up” the U.S. economy in late 2025, with Google, Meta, and Microsoft all signaling further increases in AI‑related capex into 2026. (washingtonpost.com)
At the same time, many analysts and commentators argue that parts of the AI market are in a bubble and predict a correction or “burst” in late 2025 or 2026, though this remains forward‑looking opinion rather than an observed, sustained bust at this point. (forbes.com)
Since:
- The boom is clearly still ongoing in late 2025 (so the short‑term component of his view hasn’t been falsified), but
- The core of the prediction is explicitly multi‑year (through at least 2028), and future investment cycles, valuations, and commercial outcomes between 2026–2028 are unknown,
there is not yet enough elapsed time to judge whether AI will "broadly remain in a boom phase rather than entering a sustained bust" over the full period Sacks described. Therefore, the correct classification today is inconclusive (too early).