As of 30 November 2025, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is still ongoing, with major missile and drone attacks continuing and no announced, formal Russia–Ukraine peace treaty or ceasefire agreement in place, despite multiple U.S.-brokered negotiation attempts. (reuters.com) Jason’s forecast was about the probability (roughly 50%) that Trump would secure such a deal at some point during his current 2025–2029 term; since that term is far from over and the prediction was explicitly probabilistic rather than a categorical claim, it cannot yet be evaluated as clearly right or wrong.