Elon Musk did in fact announce and brand a new political organization as the America/American Party in early July 2025, after running a large poll on X and declaring, “Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”(investing.com) Subsequent reporting and polling confirm that the party exists as a named political project, although its formal structure and filings have been halting and limited.(axios.com)

However, Jason Calacanis’s prediction is about a private reference class: roughly half of his “top 10–20 close friends in his ‘friend list’” supposedly joining or publicly supporting that party. There is no public, authoritative list of who Jason considers to be in this specific inner-circle “friend list,” and media coverage does not enumerate such a group in a way that can be matched against America Party supporters.

Press coverage of the America Party names a handful of prominent backers or participants—e.g., Vaibhav Taneja as party treasurer and encouragement/support from figures like Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)—but these sources do not identify them as members of Jason Calacanis’s own top 10–20 friends. Other coverage only quotes Jason offering strategic advice about how Elon should use America PAC; it does not indicate that Calacanis himself or his close friends have formally joined or endorsed the party in a way that could be tallied against his “friend list.”(ktik.com)

Because:

1. The composition of Jason Calacanis’s “top 10–20 close friends in his friend list” is not publicly specified or verifiable, and
2. There is no comprehensive, public accounting of which of those specific individuals have “joined or publicly supported” Musk’s America Party,

there is no reliable way to quantify the fraction of that group that has done so, now or in the future. Even though the party has been announced and discussed, the prediction cannot be measured against available evidence.

Therefore, the correct classification is "ambiguous": it cannot be determined from public information whether the prediction proved right or wrong.