If I could get like 50 or $100 million of Figma, I would probably be long it and I would short an equivalent quantum of Adobe, and I would just book the spread. And I think you make a ton of money that way. That's a safer trade because, you know, even if the AI model thing comes around the corner, we don't see it, the person who's going to take a retrade on valuation faster than Figma will be Adobe. And so you'll be hedged and you'll probably make money that way.View on YouTube
Friedberg’s prediction is explicitly about a multi‑year (roughly 1–3 year) outcome after Figma’s IPO, not just the first few months of trading. Since Figma IPO’d on July 31, 2025 on the NYSE under ticker FIG at $33 per share, only about four months have elapsed as of late November 2025—well short of the 1–3 year window he described.(economictimes.indiatimes.com)
We can say that so far the relative-value call has been directionally correct: Figma is trading around the mid‑$30s (about $36 per share recently), while Adobe has fallen from roughly $358 at the July 31, 2025 close to around $320 now.(stockanalysis.com) A market‑neutral trade put on at IPO pricing (long FIG at ~$33, short ADBE at ~$358, dollar‑for‑dollar) would currently show a gain on both legs, implying a profitable spread so far. But the claim was that this would be a good trade over the next several years, i.e., over the full 1–3 year post‑IPO period, and that longer horizon has not yet played out.
Because there is still substantial time left in the stated 1–3 year window and the trade’s ultimate performance over that full period cannot yet be known, the prediction’s truth value is inconclusive (too early to tell).