Chamath @ 00:46:08Inconclusive
economymarkets
Over the coming decades, the U.S. dollar will continue to slowly devalue rather than collapse, while U.S. dollar‑denominated assets (equities, real estate, and other hard assets) will, on average, appreciate faster than the dollar’s devaluation, making long‑term investment in U.S. assets a positive trade for most of the current generation’s lifetimes.
I suspect that this decay continues to happen… unless you see a complete collapse in the currency… So I don't know unless there's some cataclysmic collapse in asset prices. I think that this is just a thing that you have to deal with… there will be a constant bid for American assets. And that will keep the enterprise of America going for far longer than most people would guess.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction is explicitly framed over “the coming decades” and most of the current generation’s lifetimes, so only a few months of data (July–November 2025) are far too short to validate or falsify it.
So far, events are directionally consistent with Chamath’s thesis but cannot prove it:
- The U.S. dollar has experienced a historically sharp drop in 2025 (around 10–11% on the dollar index in the first half of the year), but analysts and strategists mostly describe this as a significant devaluation and period of stress, not a structural collapse; many still expect a gradual grind lower rather than a sudden failure, and central banks continue to treat the dollar as the primary reserve asset. (theinvestorschronicle.com)
- U.S. equities (e.g., the S&P 500) are up roughly 12–15% year‑to‑date in 2025, indicating that major dollar‑denominated assets have indeed appreciated faster than the dollar’s recent decline so far. (statmuse.com)
However, because the claim concerns multi‑decade currency behavior and long‑term real returns on U.S. assets, the available post‑podcast window (less than one year) is nowhere near sufficient to declare it right or wrong. The correct assessment today is that it’s too early to tell.