The prediction window is about five years from the podcast date of June 21, 2025, so it runs roughly until mid‑2030. As of November 30, 2025, we are only a few months into that window, so it is too early to judge whether Microsoft’s eventual total headcount will end up below its recent peak (~250,000 employees).

Recent public data suggests Microsoft’s headcount has been near or above that quarter‑million level in the mid‑2020s, but the prediction concerns where it will settle by 2030, not where it is in 2025. Because that future outcome cannot yet be observed, the correctness of the prediction cannot be determined at this time.

Therefore, the status of the prediction is inconclusive (too early).