The prediction’s own timeframe is “in the near term,” which we normalized as within a few years from June 2025. As of November 30, 2025, only about five months have passed, so the window for judging it has clearly not expired.

Substantively, there are early signs consistent with the prediction:

• Huawei is mass‑shipping Ascend 910C AI accelerators built on SMIC’s domestic 7 nm process as an alternative to Nvidia’s H100/H20 in China; these chips reach roughly 60% of an H100’s performance and are being deployed in large CloudMatrix systems.(mihutz.com)
• Huawei has announced the Ascend 920 on SMIC’s 6 nm node, aiming to exceed Nvidia’s China‑specific H20 in raw performance, though independent benchmarks and large‑scale deployment are still pending.(tomshardware.com)
• U.S. export controls and recent Chinese regulatory moves limiting new Nvidia deployments inside China are pushing domestic firms toward local AI silicon (e.g., Huawei Ascend), creating the beginnings of a structural, China‑based challenger in that market.(reuters.com)

However, as of late 2025 these developments have not yet translated into a clear, global “significant competitive threat” to Nvidia’s overall AI‑chip dominance:

• Analyses consistently find Huawei’s Ascend line still one generation behind Nvidia in performance per watt and ecosystem maturity; training on Ascend often costs more and carries higher integration risk versus Nvidia’s CUDA‑based stack.(ainvest.com)
• SMIC’s 7 nm and 6 nm processes lag TSMC’s leading‑edge nodes that fabricate Nvidia’s top chips, and Huawei’s 2025 production volumes (a few hundred thousand advanced AI chips) are far below Nvidia’s global scale, limiting immediate competitive impact outside China.(evervolve.com)

Overall, China has started developing advanced AI chips on domestic manufacturing processes that challenge Nvidia within China, but it is too early in the stated multi‑year window to say whether this will mature into the “significant competitive threat” to Nvidia’s global dominance that the prediction describes. Hence the status is inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.