The prediction is explicitly about “the next several years (on the order of five years)” after the podcast release on 21 June 2025. That implies a horizon out to roughly mid‑2030.

As of today (30 November 2025), only about 5 months have elapsed—far short of the multi‑year timeframe. While we can inspect early data (e.g., Microsoft’s FY 2025 results and any recent headcount or layoff announcements) to see directionally what’s happening, those partial trends cannot reliably confirm or falsify a five‑year operational prediction.

Because the specified time window has not yet passed, and nothing in the current data makes the prediction logically impossible to achieve by 2030, the only defensible assessment is that it is too early to know whether Jason’s prediction about strong revenue growth with roughly flat headcount (~250k ±10%)—and thus much higher revenue per employee—will ultimately be right or wrong.