Chamath @ 01:01:30Right
economy
For the upcoming Q2 (the quarter immediately following this May 2025 recording), U.S. real GDP growth will be greater than 3.0% but less than 4.0% annualized.
What you're probably going to see in Q2 is a really hot GDP print. If I'm a betting man, which I am, I think the GDP print is going to come in above three. Not quite four, but above three.View on YouTube
Explanation
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real U.S. GDP in Q2 2025 (April–June) grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the third and final estimate. (bea.gov)
Chamath’s normalized prediction was that Q2 real GDP growth would be greater than 3.0% but less than 4.0% annualized. The realized 3.8% growth rate lies squarely within that 3–4% range and is clearly above 3.0% and below 4.0%.
While the advance estimate initially came in at 3.0% and was then revised to 3.3% and finally 3.8%, his prediction—interpreted as about the actual Q2 growth rate—matches the finalized BEA figure. (economics.td.com)