It is too early to verify this prediction.

Chamath’s claim on 31 May 2025 was essentially: Starting from now, the fastest you could bring a newly initiated, unplanned U.S. natural-gas plant into commercial operation is about four years — i.e., sometime in 2029 or later.

To test that literally, we would need to observe at least one gas plant whose development began after the prediction (mid‑2025 or later) and then see whether it does or does not start operating before four years have passed (before mid‑2029). As of the current date (30 November 2025), no such project could possibly have reached commercial operation yet, because fewer than two years have elapsed since the prediction.

Available data on U.S. natural-gas plant development timelines (e.g., typical 2–3 years of construction plus often‑lengthy pre‑construction permitting and interconnection processes) describe historical averages, not realized outcomes for projects started after May 2025. Those historical figures don’t let us conclusively validate or falsify a forward‑looking lower bound about future projects started in 2025, especially given potential changes in regulation, supply chains, and grid interconnection queues after that date.

Because the four‑year window from the 2025 starting point (extending to 2029) has not yet elapsed, the prediction’s truth value cannot yet be observed in real-world outcomes, so it remains inconclusive rather than clearly right or wrong.