As of November 30, 2025, the key parts of Chamath’s prediction (“no commercially operating SMRs in the U.S. before roughly 2035” and “we’re still about a decade away”) concern outcomes in the 2030s, so they cannot yet be definitively judged.

Current facts:

• No small modular reactor is yet in commercial operation in the U.S. NuScale’s first-of-a-kind Carbon Free Power Project in Idaho, once targeted for 2029–2030 commercial operation, was terminated in 2023, pushing back what had been the leading candidate for an early U.S. SMR. (nuscalepower.com)
• Some U.S. projects are now aiming for the early 2030s, earlier than Chamath’s “2035+” claim if their schedules hold:
  • TVA’s BWRX‑300 SMR at Clinch River has a construction permit application under NRC review; with federal support, TVA has said commercial operation could be possible around 2033. (ans.org)
  • Dow and X‑energy’s Xe‑100 project in Seadrift, Texas, has submitted an NRC construction‑permit application and publicly describes a timeline of construction “later this decade” with startup “early next decade” (early 2030s). (corporate.dow.com)
  • Oklo continues to project its first Aurora SMR coming online around 2027–2028, which if achieved would be far earlier than 2035. (investors.com)
  • The U.S. Army’s Janus microreactor program targets an SMR‑class microreactor on a military base by about 2028, again implying potential sub‑2035 operation of small reactors, though in a defense rather than civilian‑utility context. (reuters.com)

These schedules challenge the pessimism of a strict “2035+ even if everything goes right” view, but they are still plans, not accomplished facts. Until at least one U.S. SMR actually reaches sustained commercial operation significantly before or after 2035, we cannot say with confidence that Chamath’s timeline is either correct or clearly wrong.

Because the forecasted period (early–mid 2030s) has not yet arrived and no U.S. commercial SMR is operating, the prediction is too early to conclusively verify or falsify.