The prediction is about whether over roughly the next 10–15 years new revenue from aggressively monetizing U.S. federal assets (land leases, resource extraction, etc.) will ramp up fast enough to fully make up for large projected federal budget deficits.

As of November 30, 2025, only months have passed since the May 2025 podcast—far short of the 10–15 year horizon. We therefore cannot yet observe the final outcome.

Current evidence does suggest that:

• Even with new Trump‑era policies (tariffs, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” discussions of a sovereign wealth fund backed by public lands, increased leasing, possible land sales), federal deficits remain very large in official projections. (reddit.com)
• The Congressional Budget Office’s January and March 2025 outlooks project annual deficits around 5–6% of GDP and cumulative deficits of about $22 trillion from 2026–2035, with debt rising to roughly 118% of GDP by 2035, even under current law. (americanactionforum.org)
• Existing natural‑resource and public‑lands leasing revenues are in the tens of billions of dollars per year at most—tiny relative to multi‑trillion‑dollar annual budgets and near‑$2 trillion annual deficits. (reddit.com)

These data points so far are directionally consistent with Friedberg’s skepticism that asset monetization alone will quickly erase the deficit, but they are still just early‑period projections, not realized 10–15‑year outcomes. Major policy shifts, economic shocks, or changes in how assets are valued and sold could still occur before the horizon ends.

Because the stated time frame (10–15 years) has not elapsed, the prediction’s truth value cannot yet be definitively determined, so the status is “inconclusive” (too early).