Key elements of Friedberg’s prediction have occurred.

1. Trump administration executive/regulatory action on foreign direct‑to‑consumer imports (including Amazon‑linked traffic)

   • On April 2, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14256, which eliminated the Section 321 de minimis exemption for all imports from China and Hong Kong effective May 2, 2025. This ended duty‑free treatment for low‑value parcels (<$800) from those locations and subjected them to tariffs and formal customs procedures. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Reporting on the May 2 change explicitly notes that it hit Chinese platforms (Temu, Shein, AliExpress) and U.S. companies like Amazon, which had used de minimis to send low‑value goods directly to U.S. customers. (wired.com)
   • Earlier and subsequent tariff moves targeted the same loophole, with Reuters and others describing how shutting de minimis impacted Shein, Temu, and Amazon’s “Haul” discount channel, raising prices on their direct‑from‑China imports. (reuters.com)
   • Later in 2025, Trump signed an additional order ending the de minimis exemption globally as of August 29, 2025, so that all low‑value packages into the U.S. became subject to duties; coverage frames this as closing a major loophole that had enabled foreign e‑commerce sellers to ship goods directly to U.S. consumers duty‑free. (en.wikipedia.org)

   While these actions were not framed as being only about Amazon, they directly targeted the foreign low‑value import mechanism that Amazon’s cross‑border and third‑party sellers (e.g., Amazon Haul) had used, matching the substance of “acting on” abusive foreign direct‑to‑consumer import practices.

2. Congressional legislation to shut down or heavily restrict such foreign DTC imports

   • In mid‑2025, House Republicans advanced reconciliation legislation that proposed ending the Section 321 de minimis privilege worldwide on July 1, 2027 and adding sizable civil penalties for misuse, explicitly framed as cracking down on the de minimis import channel. (usfashionindustry.com)
   • Those provisions were enacted in Trump’s flagship reconciliation package, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which passed the House on May 22, 2025, the Senate on July 1, 2025, was agreed to again by the House on July 3, and was signed into law on July 4, 2025—all within two months of the May 2 podcast release. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Trade‑law summaries confirm that OBBBA repeals the Section 321 de minimis exemption for commercial shipments from all countries effective July 1, 2027 and creates new civil penalties of up to $5,000 for a first violation and $10,000 for subsequent violations of Section 321, effective August 3, 2025. These analyses explicitly describe the aim as eliminating the de minimis privilege worldwide and punishing abuse of that import channel. (cmtradelaw.com)

   Taken together, this is precisely Congress “passing legislation” that shuts down and heavily restricts the key foreign direct‑to‑consumer import mechanism used by offshore sellers shipping directly to U.S. consumers.

3. Nuance: “foreign import of records”

   • A narrow reading of Friedberg’s off‑the‑cuff phrase about “foreign import of records” (vinyl, CDs, etc.) is not borne out literally. Due to the Berman Amendment, physical music media (including vinyl records) remain exempt from Trump’s tariffs and related measures as “informational materials,” and reporting in late 2025 notes that vinyl, CDs, and cassettes are specifically spared despite the broader de minimis crackdown. (nypost.com)
   • However, the normalized prediction you provided treats “foreign import of records” as shorthand for the broader foreign DTC loophole, and on that more general interpretation, both branches did exactly what he anticipated: an executive crackdown plus Congressional legislation to close the foreign low‑value import channel.

Bottom line: Within months of the May 2, 2025 episode, the Trump administration and Congress jointly executed a sweeping crackdown on the de minimis system that underpinned foreign direct‑to‑consumer imports (including Amazon‑related flows). That matches the core substance and timing of Friedberg’s prediction, even though the specific niche of imported vinyl “records” was not uniquely targeted.