The prediction is framed with a multi‑year horizon: that, as pending cases over officials’ use of private/ephemeral communications progress and in light of the Signalgate incident, U.S. law and policy will develop significantly clearer rules and consequences over the next few years.

Since the podcast (late March 2025), there have been concrete moves toward clearer policy on messaging apps and recordkeeping:

• The National Archives issued AC 23.2025 on May 2, 2025, explicitly addressing records created on third‑party messaging apps like Signal and WhatsApp. It reiterates that messages about agency business are federal records regardless of platform, sets out obligations when personal accounts are used (copy or forward to an official account within 20 days), details penalties for unlawful destruction, and warns that auto‑delete features can violate record‑keeping rules unless records are preserved first. It also clarifies what counts as a transitory vs non‑transitory message and how retention schedules apply. (archives.gov)
• Reporting indicates that, shortly after Signalgate, the White House instructed staff at the U.S. DOGE Service that work‑related messages sent on personal devices and on Signal must be archived, that auto‑delete must be disabled, and that the baseline rule is to preserve all work‑related communications regardless of format. (e-pluribusunum.org)
• Individual agencies have updated or reiterated policies requiring preservation of email, text, and instant messages that meet the definition of a federal record, prohibiting use of personal messaging accounts for agency business unless records are promptly forwarded to official systems. Recent examples include HHS records‑management policy and GSA’s 2025 email/IT data retention directive. (hhs.gov)
• In litigation stemming from Signalgate (American Oversight v. Hegseth), courts have ordered preservation of specific Signal chats and, in June 2025, ordered the acting archivist (Marco Rubio) to be notified about Signal chats at risk of deletion and to refer potential Federal Records Act violations to the attorney general for enforcement. That underscores the legal consequences side of the prediction. (americanoversight.org)

However, several factors keep this from being judged "right" or "wrong" yet:

• Much of the underlying legal framework (e.g., the content‑based definition of federal records and the extension of Capstone retention practices to electronic messages, including texts and third‑party apps) predates 2025. The 2025 developments largely clarify and reinforce existing rules rather than create a wholly new regime. (congress.gov)
• Ongoing controversies show that practice and enforcement are still unsettled. Watchdog groups continue to file complaints about officials using Signal with auto‑delete for official business even after Signalgate, arguing that this may violate the Federal Records Act and agency rules, which suggests that clarity and compliance are still being worked out. (theguardian.com)
• Most importantly, as of November 30, 2025 we are only about eight months into the "next few years" window the predictor invoked. There is still substantial time for additional legislation, regulations, and case law to emerge that could either strongly validate or undercut the claim that U.S. law and policy will become significantly clearer on which communications must be preserved versus can remain off the record.

Because the prediction is explicitly about developments over the next few years and we are still early in that period, with the legal/policy trajectory not yet fully settled, the status of the prediction is too early to call.