Evidence shows that Signalgate did not fade from public and media attention within ~2–3 weeks of the leak; instead, it remained an active national‑security and political story for months.

Key points:

• The Signal leak was first widely publicized when Jeffrey Goldberg’s article in The Atlantic came out on 24–26 March 2025, with major outlets like The Guardian still describing the controversy as ongoing on 28 March ("continues through a fourth day"). Chamath’s prediction on 29 March therefore implied that by roughly mid‑April the matter would be largely forgotten. (theguardian.com)
• Well beyond that 2–3 week window, the Pentagon inspector general formally opened an investigation into Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of Signal, reported by multiple outlets on 3 April 2025, and InsideDefense published the IG’s notification letter the same day—coverage that treats Signalgate as a live, serious scandal, not something already forgotten. (theguardian.com)
• On 22 April 2025 (about three and a half weeks after the leak), watchdog group American Oversight filed a motion for a preliminary injunction in its Signalgate lawsuit, seeking emergency court orders to preserve Signal records—again generating fresh, national‑level coverage well past the predicted attention window. (americanoversight.org)
• The story continued into the summer: a detailed Washington Post piece on 6 June 2025 covered the ongoing inspector‑general inquiry, and another on 23 July reported that Hegseth’s Signal messages drew on an email marked “SECRET/NOFORN,” directly contradicting administration denials. These are prominent, months‑later stories indicating sustained media interest. (washingtonpost.com)
• The episode has enduring visibility: it is documented in multiple up‑to‑date encyclopedia entries (English "United States government group chat leaks," German "Signalgate‑Affäre," Chinese and French pages), all treating Signalgate as a named, notable scandal of Trump’s second term—evidence that it was not quickly forgotten even in the longer run. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because Signalgate remained under investigation, in court, and in major media coverage for months after late March 2025, the prediction that it would be largely forgotten within roughly two Scaramuccis (about 2–3 weeks) is best judged as wrong.