This is basically what I think is going to end up being the story over the next couple of years. Is the space race between effectively SpaceX's platform and technology versus ChinaView on YouTube
The prediction explicitly frames this as a story that will play out “over the next couple of years” after March 2025—a multi‑year horizon that, in the normalized version, runs roughly through 2027. The original quote in the episode is: “This is basically what I think is gonna end up being the story over the next couple of years, is the space race between effectively SpaceX's platform and technology versus China …” (podscripts.co)
As of today (2025‑11‑30):
- SpaceX’s Starship is still in a test‑flight phase but has become central to U.S. deep‑space and lunar plans, with multiple high‑profile test launches in 2025 and explicit ties to NASA’s Artemis program. (apnews.com)
- China’s Long March 9 is still an in‑development super‑heavy launcher, widely described as a Starship‑like, methalox, multi‑engine reusable heavy lifter, but its first test flight is generally targeted around 2030, well after 2027. (space.com)
- Broader space‑race coverage in 2024–2025 focuses on a U.S.–China competition in space (lunar and Mars ambitions), but also heavily features NASA’s Artemis/SLS, Blue Origin’s New Glenn, and other U.S. commercial players. NASA has even reopened parts of the lunar‑lander competition beyond SpaceX, which dilutes any simple “Starship vs Long March 9” framing as the dominant narrative. (livescience.com)
Because (1) the stated time window (through ~2027) has not yet elapsed and (2) narrative dominance is inherently subjective and can’t be settled this early in that window, there isn’t enough evidence yet to say the prediction is clearly right or clearly wrong. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early).