As of November 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve has carried out two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025: one at the September FOMC meeting, which lowered the target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%, and a second at the October 28–29 meeting, which further reduced the range to 3.75–4.00%. (cmegroup.com) That leaves the federal funds rate at roughly 4% going into the final scheduled 2025 meeting in December. (medium.com) However, markets and forecasters currently assign a significant probability to an additional 25-basis-point cut at that December meeting, and the Fed has not yet made that decision. (financialcontent.com) Because the prediction concerns the outcome by year-end 2025 (both the total number of cuts and the ending rate level), and the final meeting has not occurred yet, it is too early to say definitively whether there will be exactly two cuts and a year-end rate around 4%. Therefore, the prediction’s accuracy is still inconclusive at this time.