As of November 30, 2025, the full 2025–2026 horizon hasn’t played out, so the prediction can’t be definitively scored.

On the pace of rate cuts:

• In December 2024 and again in March 2025, the Fed’s “dot plot” projected two 25 bp cuts in 2025 and two in 2026, taking the funds rate to about 3.9% at end‑2025 and 3.4% at end‑2026. (cnbc.com)
• Through July 2025, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% at every meeting, despite projecting two cuts later in the year. (cnbc.com) The first cut of 2025 was only in October (25 bp), and markets expect another in December and possibly one more in January 2026. (reuters.com) This is a relatively slow, back‑loaded easing path versus many early‑2025 market hopes for faster cuts. (forbes.com)
• By June 2025, the Fed revised its projections, still penciling in two cuts in 2025 but reducing expected cuts in 2026 and 2027 to just one each, explicitly “slowing the pace of cuts” in those years versus prior guidance (two in 2026 and two in 2027). (cnbc.com) In September 2025, the Fed’s projections showed only one cut in 2026, which media described as more conservative than markets had expected. (cnbc.com)

These developments are directionally consistent with Chamath’s claim that an over‑correction would result in a slower‑than‑previously‑anticipated cutting path, especially for 2026. But 2026 policy is still only a forecast; the actual pace of cuts next year could end up faster if political or economic pressures intensify. (reuters.com)

On “increased economic pressures” (weaker growth / higher stress):

• The Fed’s June 2025 projections downgraded real GDP growth to 1.4% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, while raising PCE inflation to about 3.0% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026—more stagflationary than the March projections. (tradingeconomics.com) NABE’s November 2025 survey similarly sees only modest 2.0% growth in 2026 with inflation still elevated. (reuters.com)
• Unemployment has risen to about 4.4% (a four‑year high), and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent notes that housing and other rate‑sensitive sectors are under pressure, while consumer sentiment has fallen to a three‑year low. (nypost.com) Fed Governor Miran explicitly links the rise in unemployment to overly tight monetary policy and argues for faster and larger rate cuts. (reuters.com) These fit the idea of “pressure in the economy,” though causation is shared with tariffs, immigration policy, and a long government shutdown, not just Fed policy. (tradingeconomics.com)
• However, broad financial stress remains limited so far. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index is around –0.53 (negative values = looser‑than‑average conditions), indicating overall easy financial conditions rather than tight stress. (chicagofed.org) The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index has recently moved modestly above zero (~0.55), higher than the very calm levels of 2023–24 but far below crisis readings in 2008 or 2020. (wolfstreet.com)

Why the verdict is inconclusive:

• The core of the prediction explicitly covers 2025–2026, and we are only at late 2025. The Fed has already slowed its projected pace of cuts for 2026 and the economy is showing some strain (slower growth, higher unemployment, sectoral stress), which partially supports his thesis. (cnbc.com)
• Yet we do not know how many cuts will actually occur in 2026 or how severe economic and financial stress will ultimately be. Projections could be overtaken by events, including potential politically driven “sugar‑rush” easing that would speed up cuts rather than slow them. (reuters.com)

Because a substantial part of the forecast concerns policy actions and economic outcomes in 2026, which has not yet occurred, the most defensible assessment is that the prediction’s truth value is still unresolved.